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Antero Midstream Corp (AM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered solid operational growth and cash generation: revenue $294.8M, Adjusted EBITDA $281.2M, Free Cash Flow after dividends $77.8M, leverage down to 2.7x .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, AM beat on revenue and Adjusted EBITDA but missed on EPS: revenue $294.8M vs $291.5M*, EBITDA $281.2M vs $279.1M*, GAAP EPS $0.24 vs $0.2513*, Adjusted/Normalized EPS $0.27 vs $0.2921*; top-line strength and volume growth offset by non-cash amortization and depreciation .
  • No new FY2025 guidance changes in Q3; the Q2 update raised Net Income/Adj. Net Income/Adj. EBITDA by $10M and lifted FCF before/after dividends by $25M; dividend held at $0.90 annualized (Q3 declared $0.225) .
  • Strategic catalysts: completed integrated water system across the liquids-rich Marcellus corridor, bond refinancing of 2027 notes to 2033 at 5.75%, and optionality tied to AI datacenter and in-basin demand (including behind-the-meter exploration) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Volumes up year-over-year: low-pressure gathering +5%, compression +5%, JV processing +6%, and freshwater +30%, underscoring throughput strength and infrastructure utilization .
  • Free Cash Flow after dividends nearly doubled YoY to $77.8M, supporting $41M of share repurchases and continued deleveraging to 2.7x; “nearly doubling from last year” enabled debt reduction and buybacks per CFO .
  • Strategic execution: integrated water system completed across the liquids-rich corridor; CEO: “world-class integrated water system” with record completion efficiency, reinforcing service quality and growth readiness .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS missed consensus on both GAAP ($0.24 vs $0.2513*) and Adjusted ($0.27 vs $0.2921*), impacted by non-cash amortization ($17.7M) and depreciation ($34.5M) and modest facility idling and impairment charges .
  • Freshwater volumes declined sequentially (92 MBbl/d in Q3 vs 98 MBbl/d in Q2), reflecting completion cadence with one crew despite yoy strength .
  • Net income margin contracted sequentially as higher depreciation and mix effects weighed on GAAP EPS, despite EBITDA resilience (EBITDA margin %: 73.5–74.5% last three quarters*) *.

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$291.1 $305.5 $294.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.25 $0.26 $0.24
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.28 $0.29 $0.27
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$274.3 $284.3 $281.2
EBITDA Margin %74.00%*73.48%*74.50%*
Net Income Margin %39.10%*38.53%*37.12%*
MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$269.9 $294.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.21 $0.24
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$256.5 $281.2
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions, accrual)$56.3 $51.3
Free Cash Flow after dividends ($USD Millions)$40.1 $77.8

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025):

Metric ($USD Thousands)Gathering & ProcessingWater HandlingTotal
Revenues$240,556 $54,265 $294,821
Direct Operating$29,077 $28,809 $57,886
Operating Income$178,728 $3,767 $180,493

KPIs (average daily volumes):

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Low Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d)3,348 3,460 3,432
Compression (MMcf/d)3,330 3,447 3,421
High Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d)3,106 3,221 3,170
Fresh Water Delivery (MBbl/d)105 98 92
JV Processing (MMcf/d)1,650 1,687 1,714
JV Fractionation (MBbl/d)40 40 40

Vs. Wall Street estimates (S&P Global):

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)*Actual (Q3 2025)Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)$291.5*$294.8 Bold beat
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$279.1*$281.2 Bold beat
Primary EPS ($)$0.2513*$0.24 Bold miss
Normalized EPS ($)$0.2921*$0.27 Bold miss

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Income ($M)FY 2025$455–$495 (midpoint +$10M vs prior) $455–$495 Maintained
Adjusted Net Income ($M)FY 2025$510–$550 (midpoint +$10M) $510–$550 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$1,090–$1,130 (+$10M) $1,090–$1,130 Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025$170–$190 (-$5M) $170–$190 Maintained
Interest Expense ($M)FY 2025$190–$200 (-$5M) $190–$200 Maintained
Current Income Tax Expense ($M)FY 2025Reduced by $5M Unchanged Maintained
Free Cash Flow Before Dividends ($M)FY 2025$715–$755 (+$25M) $715–$755 Maintained
Free Cash Flow After Dividends ($M)FY 2025$275–$325 (+$25M) $275–$325 Maintained
Dividend Per Share ($)FY 2025$0.90 $0.90 (Q3 declared $0.225) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiatives (datacenters)Q2: Appalachia data center demand cited ; Q1: no explicit AI mentionBehind-the-meter exploration and AI datacenter optionality; positioning to serve in-basin power growth Strengthening
Supply chain/logisticsNot discussed in Q1/Q2Not specifically discussedStable (n/a)
Tariffs/macro demandQ2: Gulf Coast LNG demand growth highlighted LNG and regional power demand framing growth runway Supportive
Product/infrastructure performanceQ1: Torrey’s Peak compressor ahead of schedule ; Q2: record gathering/processing volumes Integrated water system completion; >100% JV processing utilization Improving
Regional trends (Marcellus)Ongoing expansion, bolt-ons, efficiency Core Marcellus expansion, new dry gas pad proof-of-concept on underutilized assets Expanding
Regulatory/legal/creditQ1/Q2: deleveraging; no rating change citedMoody’s upgrade; refinancing 2027s to 2033 at 5.75% Improving
R&D executionNot applicableNot applicablen/a
Health/safety featuresESG report (Q2) noted broadly No new disclosureStable (n/a)

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Fresh water delivery volumes increased by 30% year-over-year… highlighting the deliverability, consistency, and importance of Antero Midstream’s world-class integrated water system” .
  • CFO: “Free Cash Flow after dividends nearly doubling from last year… allowed us to reduce absolute debt while returning incremental capital to shareholders” .
  • CFO: “Credit rating upgrade… refinance nearest-term debt maturity out to 2033 at an attractive coupon… leaves AM with no near-term maturities” .
  • CFO (call): “Leverage down to 2.7x… refinancing extended maturity to 2033 at the same 5.75% coupon; over $870M of liquidity” .
  • CEO (call): “First dry gas Marcellus pad in over a decade on existing underutilized midstream capacity… proof of concept for future in-basin demand growth from data centers and power generation” .

Q&A Highlights

  • In-basin demand and behind-the-meter power: AR/AM exploring options at Sherwood; multi-party hurdles remain, no near-term announcements expected .
  • Underutilized assets optionality: ~150,000 acres with available HP/compression capacity from Crestwood (2022) and Summit (2024) bolt-ons; potential for low capital intensity growth .
  • Connectivity for 10 undeveloped AR locations: ~$1M per well for LP and water; incremental capex “maybe $10M” total .
  • Capital allocation: balanced approach (~50/50) between share repurchases and debt reduction going forward .
  • Dry gas pad proof-of-concept: capital intensity could decline if development shifts into regions with existing infrastructure; optionality aligns with in-basin demand and commodity curves .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue beat ($294.8M vs $291.5M*), Adjusted EBITDA beat ($281.2M vs $279.1M*), GAAP EPS miss ($0.24 vs $0.2513*), Adjusted/Normalized EPS miss ($0.27 vs $0.2921*) .
  • Potential estimate implications: stronger throughput and segment revenue may support top-line and EBITDA revisions; EPS modeling should reflect recurring amortization of customer relationships ($17.7M) and depreciation ($34.5M), plus facility idling and minor impairment .

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operational momentum continues with yoy volume growth and >100% JV processing utilization; infrastructure is positioned for incremental demand .
  • Cash generation accelerating: FCF after dividends $77.8M and leverage at 2.7x, creating room for continued buybacks and debt reduction .
  • Capital returns remain a focus: Q3 dividend $0.225 and $41M in repurchases; ~$385M authorization remaining supports ongoing return of capital .
  • Balance sheet improved: credit upgrade and 2033 notes reduce near-term refinancing risk, sustaining liquidity and lowering financing friction .
  • Strategic optionality: integrated water system completed; dry gas pad proof-of-concept leverages underutilized assets; potential to benefit from AI datacenter and regional power demand .
  • Near-term modeling: expect top-line/EBITDA resilience; incorporate non-cash amortization/depreciation in EPS forecasts to avoid overestimating GAAP EPS vs normalized benchmarks .
  • Watch catalysts: execution on behind-the-meter initiatives, AR leasing/acquisitions (~$260M) adding ~80 locations, and any 2026 program updates could drive estimate and multiple expansion .

Additional Q3 2025 disclosures

  • Return of capital release: declared Q3 dividend ($0.225) and repurchased 2.3M shares ($41.3M) .
  • Bond press release: priced $650M 5.75% senior notes due 2033, proceeds used to redeem 2027 notes .